Problem ER7

The small lake of Darkwaters has been repopulated with a rare fish species: the dwarf catfish Silurus minusculus. To this end, 30 individuals have been released (sex ratio 1:1). A previous demographic analysis determined that the instantaneous mortality rate is 0.16 year$^{-1}$ while the birthrate is 0.2 year$^{-1}$. Calculate the long-term probability of success for the reintroduction at Darkwaters.